Welcome
Conventional wisdom in American politics focuses only on American costs in the war in Iraq: the casualties to U.S. soldiers, the financial costs, and sometimes the strategic costs. But the human cost to the Iraqis themselves are nearly ignored in political discourse, the news media, and intellectual circles. This site is a corrective to those oversights. We present empirical reports, studies, and other accounts that convey and assess the consequences of war for the people of Iraq. John Tirman, Executive Director, MIT Center for International Studies
Recent
Study shows news media undercount violence
The peer-reviewed journal Conflict and Health is publishing this month (November 2009) a study of the way the major news media are reporting casualty figures from the Iraq War, and note that "U.S. newspapers report more events and tallies related to Coalition [military] deaths than Iraqi civilian deaths, although there are substantially different proportions amongst the different U.S. newspapers. In four of the five non-US newspapers, the pattern was reversed." The authors conclude that "this difference in reporting trends may partly explain the discrepancy in how well people are informed about U.S. and Iraqi civilian fatalities in Iraq. Furthermore, this calls into question the role of the media in reporting and sustaining armed conflict, and the extent to which newspaper and other media reports can be used as data to assess fatalities or trends in the time of war." The authors, Schuyler W. Henderson, M.D., M.P.H., William E. Olander. M.P.H., and Les Roberts, Ph.D., are at Columbia University.
Coincidentally, their findings are reflected in a just-released journalistic treatment of mortality estimates from Iraq, among other issues, in Newspeak in the 21st Century, by David Edwards amd David Cromwell (Pluto Press), of the watchdog group, Media Lens.
Iraq's government rated among the world's most corrupt
The watchdog group Transparency International has ranked Iraq's government as the fourth most-corrupt in the world in its annual survey. It tied Sudan, and scored slightly higher than Myamar, Afghanistan, and Somalia. See the rankings here. The Berlin-based organization notes that the "results demonstrate that countries which are perceived as the most corrupt are also those plagued by long-standing conflicts, which have torn apart their governance infrastructure.
"When essential institutions are weak or non-existent, corruption spirals out of control and the plundering of public resources feeds insecurity and impunity. Corruption also makes normal a seeping loss of trust in the very institutions and nascent governments charged with ensuring survival and stability." Corruption of all kinds, but particularly that affecting conflict-riddled countries, makes human insecurity greater and robs the citizenry of development aid, economic growth, and security.
New violence, corruption threaten security
The massive bombings in August and October in Baghdad, killing hundreds, and ongoing violence in Mosul and Kirkuk are raising new concerns about progress made in Iraq. Among the sources of worry is pervasive and dangerous corruption in the security forces, as the New York Times reported in late October. Some of this violence may be related to the scheduled elections early next year, nation-wide elections that will shape the future of Iraq as U.S. force commitments wind down. Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group has an eyewitness report in the Nov. 19 issue of the New York Review of Books.
Fort Hood murders bring attention to suicides and reports of soldiers' violence
The shocking killings of 13 Americans at Ford Hood in early November raise again the psychological toll of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Among the issues being discussed is the extraordinary stress that the wars exact on service personnel. The suicide rate at Fort Hood is 10 soldiers per month, reports Asia Times, which also cites a RAND study last year noting that "nearly 20 percent of military service members who have returned from Iraq and Afghanistan — 300,000 in all — report symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder or major depression, yet only slightly more than half have sought treatment." This report from the New York Times (August 2, 2009) notes that the suicide rate among Iraq veterans is the highest for the army since records began to be kept.
As this site posted previously, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have exacted a toll on U.S. soldiers and their families and communities, as this recent investigation in Colorado illustrates. "Slaughter became a part of life," the report by Dave Phillips explains. "Discipline deteriorated. Soldiers say the torture and killing of Iraqi civilians lurked in the ranks. And when these soldiers came home to Colorado Springs suffering the emotional wounds of combat, soldiers say, some were ignored, some were neglected, some were thrown away and some were punished. Some kept killing — this time in Colorado Springs." Read the second part of the story. The concern among health professions about post traumatic stress disorder has grown, particularly as the suicide rate among Iraq veterans has also grown. See this medical analysis.
Gen. Odierno says attacks down 85% from peak; Red Cross warns violence still worrisome
General Ray Odierno, U.S. military commander in Iraq, said in congressional testimony at the end of September that attacks in Iraq were significantly down from 2007, enabling a steady pace of U.S. withdrawals that may in fact be quickened over the coming months. "Gen. Petraeus reported that there were over 230 monthly high profile attacks in Iraq in early 2007, a number now down to about 25 per month," reports MSNBC. What "high profile" means was not explained.
The Red Cross, however, warned against assuming that violence was no longer a problem. Nearly 400 died in August, according to official counts. "This is a real concern. Civilians are paying the high price of this violence in Iraq ... Sometimes there is the impression that life is going on as normal," said the head of the Red Cross in Iraq. Of particular concern is the upcoming national elections in January, and the contested cities in the north, particularly Kirkuk and Mosul, which have suffered increasing incidents in 2009.
Meanwhile, a medical crisis stemming from continuing violence festers, despite efforts to rebuild the nation's health care system, reports the Canadian Medical Association Journal. "Under-five mortality rates (46 per 1000) and maternal mortality rates (84 per 100 000) are far higher than in neighboring countries, and higher than they were before the invasion. One in eight deaths is violence-related. Roughly 38% of pregnant women are anemic. Diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections — further compounded by malnutrition — account for about two-thirds of deaths amongst the under-five population," says the report (Sept. 28, 2009). Two thousand physicians have been murdered since 2003, and 18,000 have fled--about half the prewar total.
The Iraqi human rights ministry said October 13th "that at least 85,000 people had been killed by bombs, murders and fighting in 2004-08," numbers collected via death certificates issued by the Ministry of Health. Another 10,000 people are missing from that period, the most violent of the war. Death certificates could be issued by other local agencies, and the Ministry of Health was under the control of the followers of Moktada al Sadr, the Shia militant, until late 2007, so the numbers are partial at best. The ministry noted, moreover, that 15,000 unidentified bodies were found in those four years, and that "thousands of Iraqis killed since 2003 without being identified by their relatives were buried in special cemeteries called unidentified body cemeteries." Even before the war, only one-third of all deaths were reported to or by the Ministry of Health. Under the stress of war and sectarian politics, the portion of reported deaths would likely be considerably lower.
USAID: Returnees gradually increasing, but numbers of displaced still in millions
Iraqis have beun to return to their places of (pre-2003) origin in 2009, says a Sept. 30 report from the U.S. Agency for International Development, but the total displaced from their homes in Iraq remains stubbornly high--4.5 million, with about 1.7 million, or 38%, as refugees mainly in Syria and Jordan. "Approximately 60 percent of total IDPs intend to return to areas of origin, but continue to cite security concerns, psychosocial reasons, and limited employment prospects as obstacles to return," the report explains. Some 325,000 displaced since early 2006 have returned, or 7 percent of the total.
"As of April 2009, more than 60 percent of the returnee population reported insufficient access to food, nearly 40 percent cited a lack of safe drinking water, and more than 50 percent noted inadequate quantities of fuel and other essential supplies upon returning home. In addition, many returnees are returning to find property destroyed or occupied." Read the report
Naming sexual violence in Iraq
Rape and other sexual violence is frequently a grisly aspect of war, not much talked about, and the war in Iraq is no different. "No one knows exactly how many Iraqi women have been raped since the U.S-led invasion in 2003, but activists in Iraq and abroad put the numbers in the thousands, writes ournalist Anna Badkhen. "Human rights groups began to see an increase in rapes in Iraq immediately after the fall of Hussein’s regime, and evidence that different factions were targeting women. In 2008, Amnesty International reported that 'crimes specifically aimed at women and girls, including rape, have been committed by members of Islamist armed groups, militias, Iraqi government forces, foreign soldiers within the U.S.-led Multinational Force, and staff of foreign private military security contractors.'"
Read Anna's report with the slide show and narration by Mimi Chakarova.
Scandal over Blackwater murders widening
The principal security contractor brought to Iraq by the Bush administration has been broadly implicated in murders of Iraqis and, allegedly, of some who would have testified about those killings. Blackwater, Inc., a notoriously violent corporation working with near-total immunity under the Bush military's rules of engagement, and its founder Erik Prince, are being targeted by federal investigators. Read more in The Nation.
First-hand reports say instability, violence persist
Violence in Iraq is again drawing some attention back to the country as considerations of U.S. deployment there are debated. As many predicted, the end to the subsidy of the "Awakening Councils" appears to be one source of new violence. Meanwhile, more eyewitness reports indicate how fragile the situation is. "We didn’t create a paradise in Iraq; we created a hell," journalist Nir Rosen told Amy Goodman in April. "It’s still pretty bad for most Iraqis, in terms of water, electricity. There are still explosions. . . . Prime Minister Maliki is creating kind of his own Republican Guard, an extralegal group of elite, thousands of soldiers. They act with impunity, above the law." See the interview. Rosen cites the recent Refugees International report on the displaced, which notes, that the refugees and internally displaced "remain reluctant to go back due to lack of security, the creation of ethnically cleansed neighborhoods, and poor government services." Read the report
The new low but significant levels of violence--as in Kirkuk and Mosul--are likely to persist. Baghdad and Basra are not immune either. Read Juan Cole's analysis of the debate (August 1).
ABC News poll in Iraq shows continuing civilian distress, opposition to U.S. invasion
An ABC News survey (March 2009) in Iraq conducted by D3 Systems shows improvement in some categories, such as belief in democracy and overall security, but some surprising levels of discontent and lack of basic human services. As NGOs like Oxfam have reported, access to clean water, medical care, and other basic amentities exists for only 30-40% of the population. More than half believe the 2003 U.S. invasion was wrong, 70% believe the U.S. has "carried out responsibilities" badly during the war; and only 18 percent believe the U.S. is now playing a positive role in Iraq. One-quarter of all Iraqis, and much higher numbers of Arabs, said they witnessed "unnecessary violence" against Iraqis by U.S. forces recently.
Ethnic tensions persist: More than half of Sunnis say their lives are bad today; among Arabs, more than 40% still say insecurity is their major concern; dramatically growing numbers live in ethnically "pure" neighborhoods; and overwhelming percentages of Arabs oppose Kurdish control of Kirkuk.
The survey had a relatively low response rate, 62%, indicating that the responses they did receive do not reflect broader discontent, and Sunni populations appear to be under-represented, but neither ABC News nor D3 released all relevant sampling data. The data they did release and its analysis is here.
Iraq War widows in distress, says N.Y. Times, and number 740,000
"As the number of widows has swelled during six years of war, their presence on city streets begging for food or as potential recruits by insurgents has become a vexing symbol of the breakdown of Iraqi self-sufficiency," reports the New York Times (Feb. 23). "As the war has ground on, government and social service organizations say the women’s needs have come to exceed available help, posing a threat to the stability of the country’s tenuous social structures." There are some 740,000 war widows, the report says, including those from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s and Desert Storm in 1991.
That is one of every eleven women from the age of 15 to 80. Given the population bulge in the 20-40 age range that would be affected by the current war, and the high numbers of young men killed who are not married, the estimate of widows translates into a very high mortality figure. For example, if half the widows are from the current war, and one-third of those who have died as a result of the war are not married--both conservative assumptions--then more than 555,000 have been killed as a result of the U.S. invasion and subsequent violence. That figure would not include the number of women and children who have died as a result of the war's privations or from direct violence.
The Times has generally been quite cautious in its reporting on the war's human costs, so this article represents a breakthrough in its journalism. Read it here.
Two weeks later the Times reported on mental health studies done in Iraq among women, finding that 17 percent of those surveyed are suffering from serious, war-related mental illness. Read the March 7 article. It is based in part on a large household survey conducted by the World Health Organization. Asecond report, by Oxfam, notes that 75% of widows are not getting pensions owed to them. Read more.
Claims of "victory" and the human cost in the Bush years
A new analysis of the total fatalities in the Iraq war during the presidency of George W. Bush demonstrates that the likely number is between 800,000 and 1.3 million. The analysis appears in The Nation (Feb. 16, 2009) and can also be read here. It has been translated into four languages and has appeared in more than 3,000 publications and on-line websites.
Reporter Tom Ricks adds that the war seems far from over. Read his commentary.
Iraq "reconstruction" a failure, says U.S. report; corruption probe widens
A New York Times investigation(February 15) finds that deep corruption of U.S. military officers in Iraq may be responsible for wasting tens of millions of dollars and taking bribes of $10 million. Some 35 Americans have already been convicted in the probe, which is now reaching up to higher levels in the U.S. army. "Several criminal cases over the past few years point to widespread corruption in the operation," says the investigation. Read more.
Separately, a comprehensive history of the U.S. experience in Iraq finds that the rebuilding effort was "crippled before the invasion by Pentagon planners who were hostile to the idea of rebuilding a foreign country, and then molded into a $100 billion failure by bureaucratic turf wars, spiraling violence and ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure." The report, by a special U.S. inspector general, depicts chaotic, incompetent management and partisan politics as undermining the more than $100 billion spent. At best, it concludes, the reconstruction will merely replace what the U.S. invasion destroyed in infrastructure. Read the report. The Dec. 14 New York Times story on the report is here.
New videos show the drama of human insecurity
Filmmakers are increasingly posting new videos of the plight of Iraqis and the conduct and consequences of the U.S. war. These accounts go well beyond conventional news sources, which have been downplaying news from Iraq and never covered the human cost adequately. Among the independent videos recently found is one from the "Winter Solider" conference (from the American News Project, which has several from Iraq); a treatment conveying the misery in Iraq in graphic imagery; an in-your-face rendition of U.S. operations challenging the usual narrative form; and one dissecting the "pre-jaded" soldiers and the cultural conditioning to be in combat.
Detention centers unchecked, says parliamentarian
Iraq's notorious detention centers---frequently a place of torture and disappearances---may be more numerous than previously thought. An Iraqi Member of Parliament, Mohammad Al-Dainy, has told the ICRC and others that the detention centers number 420. The State Department's human rights report on Iraq has charged the Interior Ministry, the overseer of the detention centers, with mutliple violations of human rights in those facilities. See the State Department's report. Human Rights Watch has also decried the situation, repeatedly, and has called on the Bush administration to take action. Some 17,000 Iraqis now in U.S. detention centers will be handed over to Iraqi authorities---possibly the Interior Ministry---in January, and concern for their safety runs high. A U.S. general says 12,000 of the 17,000 are essentially harmless and should be released.
Refugee policy a "failure" as displaced Iraqis fear returning home -- new reports
An October 2008 article from a Los Angeles Times correspondent reports that there is still a net outflow of professionally skilled Iraqis. This confirms earlier reports and analyses of the continuing refugee crisis.
(1) The millions of Iraqi refugees in the region "remain stranded, jobless and deprived of essential services, while the Iraqi government and the wider international community have failed in their responsibilities and are ill prepared to cope with a new refugee crisis, should it occur," says a new assessment from the International Crisis Group (July 10). Up to 5 million Iraqis have been displaced by the war. Two million or more are in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. Facing increasing poverty, says the report, and "with little to lose and nothing to look forward to, refugees could become radicalized and more violent; crime, which already has reached worrying levels in host countries, could rise. "
(2) The reduced violence in Iraq has not resulted in large-scale returns of refugees and internally displaced persons, because Iraqis do not regard their homeland as safe. This first-hand report by foreign correspondent Anna Badkhen (July 29) provides some insights on this lack of confidence in Iraq's security situation.
(3) A comprehensive analysis of the issue of Iraqi displaced and security from the Brookings Institution, The Looming Crisis: Displacement and Security in Iraq, released in August 2008.
(5) The International Organization for Immigration has been interviewing returnee families, 212 in all from abroad, and has this comprehensive report on who they are.
(6) Roberta Cohen provides a analytic overview of the displaced persons issue in the American University International Law Review , Autumn 2008.
"We were hiring terrorists": report on the Awakening militias
The quandary of what to do with the Sunni militias supported by the U.S. is becoming acute--the U.S. will stop payments to them this autumn, and the Iraqi government is unable or unwilling to absorb more than a handful into the police or army. As a result, tens of thousands of former insurgents will essentially be on the loose again, with arms and anger at the ready. Read journalist Anna Badkhen's eyewitness report.
New assessment shows gross under-reporting of war deaths
A worldwide survey of war deaths in 13 different countries from 1955 - 2002 shows that mortality accounts from "passive surveillance"--e.g., newspaper reporting--capture only one-third of actual deaths. The research, published in June in the British Medical Journal, thereby confirms that "active surveillance"--household surveys of the kind produced bythe Iraq Mortality Study--are more reliable. Read the article, and this report from the science journal Nature.
Polling analyst: Iraqis want U.S. troops out
In July 23 testimony before a U.S. House subcommittee, University of Maryland pollster Stephen Kull reviews the surveys done in Iraq that ask Iraqis about the U.S. occupation and potential troop withdrawal. "It is clear that the Iraqi people are quite eager for the US to lighten its military footprint in Iraq," Prof. Kull concluded. "More importantly, it appears that they are eager to regain their sense of sovereignty. As long as they do not have this sense, they are likely to continue to have a fundamentally hostile attitude toward all aspects of the US presence in Iraq." Read his testimony.
Report
The Human Cost of the War in Iraq: a Mortality Study 2002-06
Random killings, human bombs, dozens of violent groups, and a deepening sense of insecurity gnaw Iraq. The evidence of pervasive and persistent mayhem is everywhere, from the formal statistics of mortality to broader estimates of numerical outcomes. The deadly violence is omnipresent, but without a visible front or an apparent strategy—and for those reasons, among others, it is poorly understood.
It is for this reason that the mortality study conducted by Burnham et al was commissioned by the MIT Center for International Studies. Understanding the scale, the sources of violence, the demographical profiles of the victims, and the geographic dispersion of killing—all recorded in the household survey of the Iraq mortality study—provides an indispensable tool in coming to terms with the violence in Iraq. Read the full report in PDF
Eyewitness
An Iraqi Woman Regards the Human Cost of the War
Huda Ahmed is the Elizabeth Neuffer Fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies. She has worked as a journalist in her native Iraq, and is also now working at a public radio station in Boston. Read the report in English and Arabic 
"Inside Iraq" - Bloggers tell their stories
From the McClatchey News site, several Iraqis tell their unedited tales of life in a war zone. Highlighted in Michael Massing's articles (see Further Discussion). Link to the blogs
See also the N.Y. Times' Baghdad bureau blogs and videos here. Medea Benjamin's April 2008 blog on refugees in Syria and Jordan here.
