Transportation
and vehicle systems
Transportation will contribute about 25 percent of incremental carbon emissions over the next two decades as the total number of vehicles on the roads, rails and in the air doubles. In emerging Asia alone, the total number of vehicles is expected to rise from 55 million in 2003 to 420 million in 2030.
The development of alternative fuels and advanced, energy-efficient vehicles has primarily focused on personal vehicles and many opportunities for substantial progress remain. While this work is important, research across all modes of transportation is necessary if large reductions in energy use and emissions are to be achieved. Biofuels, plug-in hybrid power trains and lighter, more aerodynamic vehicles offer partial solutions for the transportation puzzle, while intelligent transportation systems and integrated freight networks must also play a role. Coupled development of alternative fuels and the vehicles that use them is also essential; the energy and environmental benefits to be gained from various new vehicle and fuels technologies must be evaluated both in context and over time.
Investments in road, rail and air transport networks, including public transportation networks, increase flexibility for both families and firms. In addition, the demand for personal transport is strongly influenced by land use and other decisions affecting where people live and work and how many miles they drive in a given week. Finally, underinvestment in transportation networks can increase traffic congestion, exacerbating energy use and emissions. A technically supported systems-analysis approach will provide informed policy-making to enable the development of more efficient, environmentally benign transportation systems in the United States and across the globe.



